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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month fell to 4.64 Percent in May 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month fell to 4.64 Percent in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.08 Percent from April's 4.72 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.640000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.720000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month (Brazil) was reported at 4.64 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.72 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.57 Percent, ranging from 3.81 Percent to 5.17 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.58 Percent, up from the prior three at 4.17 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.38 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.41 Percent). In June readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month has averaged 4.74 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month rose to 4.720000 percent in May, up from April’s 4.390000 percent, marking a clear acceleration in annual inflation. This increase reverses the downward trend seen earlier in the year, with inflation climbing after several months of moderation. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this inflation uptick. Updated 6/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.64 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.72 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.39 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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