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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month fell to 4.22 Percent in July 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month fell to 4.22 Percent in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.22 Percent from June's 4.44 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.220000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.440000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month (Brazil) was reported at 4.22 Percent in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.44 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.41 Percent, ranging from 3.81 Percent to 4.72 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.43 Percent, up from the prior three at 4.31 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.29 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month has averaged 4.53 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Focus Market Readout (Sep 14) and Business Confidence (Sep 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's IPCA Inflation 12-Month for July registered at 4.44 percent, down from June's 4.64 percent, marking a continued easing in inflationary pressures. The decline from June to July confirms a moderation trend after May's 4.72 percent reading. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation of this downward trajectory amid central bank policy adjustments. Updated 8/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.22 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.44 Percent. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.64 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.80 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.15 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.90 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |