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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month climbed to 4.39 Percent in March 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased April 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month climbed to 4.39 Percent in March 2026, released April 2026, up 0.58 Percent from February's 3.81 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.390000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.810000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month (Brazil) was reported at 4.39 Percent in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.81 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.62 Percent, ranging from 3.81 Percent to 5.23 Percent across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.21 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.47 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.42 Percent). In April readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month has averaged 4.54 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 10) and Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month eased to 3.81% in January 2026, down from December’s 4.44%, marking the lowest reading since October 2021. This 0.63 percentage point decline signals broad-based disinflation across major categories, with inflation now just below the central bank’s midpoint target. Market reaction was positive, with government bond yields falling and the real strengthening amid confidence in the inflation trajectory. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.39 Percent. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 3.81 Percent. Before that (Jan 2026): 4.44 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.58) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.