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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month climbed to 4.58 Percent in August 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month climbed to 4.58 Percent in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.36 Percent from July's 4.22 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.580000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.220000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month (Brazil) was reported at 4.58 Percent in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.22 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.40 Percent, ranging from 3.81 Percent to 4.72 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.41 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.58 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.30 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month has averaged 4.72 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month rose to 4.580000 percent in September, up from August's 4.220000 percent, marking a clear acceleration in annual inflation. This increase reverses the downward trend seen earlier in the year, with July at 4.44 percent and August at 4.22 percent. The higher inflation reading may influence market expectations and central bank policy decisions ahead of upcoming economic data releases. Updated 10/10/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.58 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.22 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.44 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bearish USD, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |