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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month fell to 3.81 Percent in January 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased February 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month fell to 3.81 Percent in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.63 Percent from December's 4.44 Percent reading.
Latest Release
3.810000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.440000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month (Brazil) was reported at 3.81 Percent in January 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.44 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.73 Percent, ranging from 3.81 Percent to 5.35 Percent across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.17 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.77 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.50 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.43 Percent). In February readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month has averaged 4.46 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (May 28) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (May 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil IPCA Inflation 12-Month eased to 3.81% in January 2026, down from December’s 4.44%, marking the lowest reading since October 2021. This 0.63 percentage point decline signals broad-based disinflation across major categories, with inflation now just below the central bank’s midpoint target. Market reaction was positive, with government bond yields falling and the real strengthening amid confidence in the inflation trajectory. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 3.81 Percent. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 4.44 Percent. Before that (Dec 2025): 4.26 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.