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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil New Car Sales MoM fell to -1.6% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil New Car Sales MoM fell to -1.6% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 4.2% from July's 2.6% reading. The print exceeded the -1.7% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 9.78%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Sales MoM averaged 4.13%, vs 18.85% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-1.6
Actual
-1.7
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.65 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.73
Actual: -1.6
Error: +2.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Sales MoM (Brazil) was reported at -1.6% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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New Car Sales MoM - BR
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About New Car Sales MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's New Car Sales MoM declined by -1.600000% in August, slightly better than the -1.700000% estimate. This follows July's 2.600000% increase, marking a shift from expansion to contraction in monthly sales. Market focus now turns to upcoming economic data for further insight into consumer demand. Updated 9/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.6 %, consensus -1.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |