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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil New Car Sales MoM climbed to 2.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil New Car Sales MoM climbed to 2.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 3.9% from August's -1.6% reading. The print exceeded the -2.0% consensus by 4.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 7.43%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Sales MoM averaged 1.1%, vs 0.67% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
-2
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.35 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1.05
Actual: 2.3
Error: -3.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Sales MoM (Brazil) was reported at 2.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -2% by 4.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.43%, ranging from -1.6% to 10.6% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1%, down from the prior three at 4.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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New Car Sales MoM - BR
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About New Car Sales MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's New Car Sales MoM rose 2.300000% in September, beating the -2.000000% estimate. This marks a rebound from August's -1.600000%, signaling renewed demand after a contraction. The data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for Brazil's auto sector amid stable economic conditions. Updated 10/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus -2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |