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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 70.0% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Net Debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 70.0% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 0.7% from June's 69.3% reading.
Latest Release
70.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
69.300000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Debt-to-GDP ratio (Brazil) was reported at 70% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 69.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 66.92%, ranging from 64.8% to 70% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 69.47%, up from the prior three at 67.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.89%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.11%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and Unemployment Rate (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Net Debt-to-GDP ratio - BR
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About Net Debt-to-GDP ratio — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Net Debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 70.000000% in October, up from September's 69.3%, marking a continued increase in leverage. The ratio has steadily climbed since January's 65.3%, indicating growing fiscal pressure. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this rising debt burden. Updated 10/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 70 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 69.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 69.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |