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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 67.4% in February 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Net Debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 67.4% in February 2026, released May 2026, up 0.6% from January's 66.8% reading.
Latest Release
67.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
66.800000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Bullish Bovespa | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Debt-to-GDP ratio (Brazil) was reported at 67.4% in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 66.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 64.64%, ranging from 62% to 67.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 65.97%, up from the prior three at 65.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, positively correlated (Bullish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Net Debt-to-GDP ratio - BR
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About Net Debt-to-GDP ratio — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Net Debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 67.4% in May, up from April's 66.8%, marking a continued increase in the country's debt burden. This month-over-month rise signals a growing fiscal challenge as the ratio climbs steadily from 65.0% in February. Market participants will watch for further debt dynamics amid ongoing economic pressures. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 67.4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 66.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 65.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.