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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 69.1% in May 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Net Debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 69.1% in May 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from April's 68.5% reading.
Latest Release
69.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
68.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Debt-to-GDP ratio (Brazil) was reported at 69.1% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 68.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 66.17%, ranging from 64.2% to 69.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 68.5%, up from the prior three at 65.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.63%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.91%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, positively correlated (Bullish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Net Debt-to-GDP ratio - BR
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About Net Debt-to-GDP ratio — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil’s Net Debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 69.100000% in August, up from July’s 68.500000%, marking a continued increase in leverage. The ratio has climbed steadily since May’s 67.4%, indicating expanding fiscal pressure. Market focus remains on Brazil’s debt trajectory amid ongoing economic adjustments. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 69.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 68.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 67.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.55 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |