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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IBC-BR Economic Activity fell to -0.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity fell to -0.6% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.7% from June's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 0.1%.
Latest Release
-0.600000
Actual
-0.500000
Consensus
0.100000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.5
Actual: -0.6
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IBC-BR Economic Activity (Brazil) was reported at -0.6% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.01%, ranging from -0.7% to 0.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0%, up from the prior three at -0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.5%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.52%). In August readings over the past 3 years, IBC-BR Economic Activity has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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IBC-BR Economic Activity - BR
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About IBC-BR Economic Activity — Brazil
DEFINITION
Index The IBC-BR Economic Activity Index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall economic activity in Brazil. It is calculated by analyzing various economic factors such as production, employment, and consumption, providing valuable insights into the country's economic health. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the current state and future outlook of the Brazilian economy. With its timely and accurate data, the IBC-BR Economic Activity Index serves as a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.6 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |