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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IBC-BR Economic Activity climbed to 0.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity climbed to 0.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's -0.2% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus.
Latest Release
0.300000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
-0.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IBC-BR Economic Activity (Brazil) was reported at 0.3% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.03%, ranging from -0.7% to 0.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at -0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.54%). In October readings over the past 3 years, IBC-BR Economic Activity has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, positively correlated (Bullish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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IBC-BR Economic Activity - BR
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About IBC-BR Economic Activity — Brazil
DEFINITION
Index The IBC-BR Economic Activity Index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall economic activity in Brazil. It is calculated by analyzing various economic factors such as production, employment, and consumption, providing valuable insights into the country's economic health. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the current state and future outlook of the Brazilian economy. With its timely and accurate data, the IBC-BR Economic Activity Index serves as a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |