Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IBC-BR Economic Activity fell to 0.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity fell to 0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.4% from May's 0.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.0% consensus by 0.1%.
Latest Release
0.100000
Actual
0.000000
Consensus
0.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.15
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IBC-BR Economic Activity (Brazil) was reported at 0.1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.05%, ranging from -0.7% to 0.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.62%). In July readings over the past 3 years, IBC-BR Economic Activity has averaged -0.12%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, positively correlated (Bullish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
IBC-BR Economic Activity - BR
Loading chart data...
About IBC-BR Economic Activity — Brazil
DEFINITION
Index The IBC-BR Economic Activity Index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall economic activity in Brazil. It is calculated by analyzing various economic factors such as production, employment, and consumption, providing valuable insights into the country's economic health. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the current state and future outlook of the Brazilian economy. With its timely and accurate data, the IBC-BR Economic Activity Index serves as a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |