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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IBC-BR Economic Activity fell to -0.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity fell to -0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 1.3% from March's 0.6% reading. The reading missed the -0.2% consensus by 0.5%.
Latest Release
-0.700000
Actual
-0.200000
Consensus
0.600000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.16
Actual: -0.7
Error: +0.54
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Bullish Bovespa | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IBC-BR Economic Activity (Brazil) was reported at -0.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.05%, ranging from -0.7% to 0.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.57%). In May readings over the past 3 years, IBC-BR Economic Activity has averaged -0.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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IBC-BR Economic Activity - BR
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About IBC-BR Economic Activity — Brazil
DEFINITION
Index The IBC-BR Economic Activity Index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall economic activity in Brazil. It is calculated by analyzing various economic factors such as production, employment, and consumption, providing valuable insights into the country's economic health. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the current state and future outlook of the Brazilian economy. With its timely and accurate data, the IBC-BR Economic Activity Index serves as a crucial tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -0.7 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.