Loading page content
Loading page content
Brazil CPI MoM fell to 0.58% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.09% from April's 0.67% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.53% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. CPI MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months.
across last 4 releases
Jun 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.58% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.53% by 0.05%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.67%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
Brazil's CPI MoM for May rose 0.580000%, beating the 0.530000% estimate and down from April's 0.670000%. May's inflation rate shows a deceleration compared to April, indicating a slowing price increase momentum. Market focus remains on upcoming central bank decisions amid this easing inflation trend. Updated 6/12/26
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.58 %, consensus 0.53 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.62 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.67 %.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Business Confidence | 46.7 | 47.2 | 46.5 | 46.33 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.00 | Low | |
| 12:00 | Retail Sales MoM | -1.5 | 0.7 | -0.6 | -1.05 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | Retail Sales YoY | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.50 | Low | |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.7 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | ||