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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI MoM fell to 0.06% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil CPI MoM fell to 0.06% in July 2026, down 0.35% from June's 0.41% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.19% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. CPI MoM has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 0.49%, vs 0.74% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
0.06
Actual
0.19
Consensus
0.41
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.18
Actual: 0.06
Error: +0.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.06% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.19% by 0.13%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.41%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.42%, ranging from 0.06% to 0.67% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.21%, down from the prior three at 0.62%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI MoM - BR
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About CPI MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI MoM for July came in at 0.060000%, missing the 0.190000% estimate and down sharply from June's 0.410000%. July's reading signals a significant deceleration in monthly inflation compared to June. Market focus will remain on central bank policy amid this easing inflation trend. Updated 7/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.06 %, consensus 0.19 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.16 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.41 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.75) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |