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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI MoM fell to 0.58% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil CPI MoM fell to 0.58% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.09% from April's 0.67% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.53% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. CPI MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months.
Latest Release
0.58
Actual
0.53
Consensus
0.67
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.57
Actual: 0.58
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.58% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.53% by 0.05%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.67%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CPI MoM - BR
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About CPI MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI MoM for May rose 0.580000%, beating the 0.530000% estimate and down from April's 0.670000%. May's inflation rate shows a deceleration compared to April, indicating a slowing price increase momentum. Market focus remains on upcoming central bank decisions amid this easing inflation trend. Updated 6/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.58 %, consensus 0.53 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.62 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.67 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.