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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI MoM fell to 0.62% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil CPI MoM fell to 0.62% in May 2026, down 0.27% from April's 0.89% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.53% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. CPI MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
0.62
Actual
0.53
Consensus
0.89
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.56
Actual: 0.62
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.62% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.53% by 0.09%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.89%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Jun 12) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI MoM - BR
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About CPI MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI MoM for May rose 0.62%, beating the 0.53% estimate but down from April's 0.89%. The inflation rate moderated compared to April, indicating a slower price increase month-over-month. Market focus will remain on upcoming central bank decisions amid easing inflation pressures. Updated 5/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.62 %, consensus 0.53 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.67 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.89 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.