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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI MoM fell to -0.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil CPI MoM fell to -0.4% in August 2026, down 0.46% from July's 0.06% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.48%. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 0.26%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
0.06
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.32
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.06%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.67% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.09%, down from the prior three at 0.38%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI MoM - BR
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About CPI MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI MoM for August registered -0.400000%, missing the -0.300000% estimate and reversing July's 0.060000% increase. August's deflation contrasts with July's modest inflation, signaling a sharp monthly contraction in consumer prices. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy adjustments amid this unexpected decline. Updated 8/26/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.07 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.06 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |