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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly fell to 0.16 Percent in May 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly fell to 0.16 Percent in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.42 Percent from April's 0.58 Percent reading.
Latest Release
0.160000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.580000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly (Brazil) was reported at 0.16 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.58 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.39 Percent, ranging from 0.09 Percent to 0.70 Percent across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.47 Percent, up from the prior three at 0.45 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.33 Percent). In June readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly has averaged 0.20 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly for May registered 0.580000 percent, down from April’s 0.670000 percent, indicating a deceleration in inflation. May’s reading shows a moderation compared to the prior month’s pace but remains elevated relative to earlier months this year. Market focus will remain on upcoming central bank decisions amid this easing inflation trend. Updated 6/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.16 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.58 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.67 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.77) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.8 | 50.80 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | BR | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | 9.90 | Medium | |