Consumer Confidence - IT Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Italy Consumer Confidence
95
Actual
97.6
Consensus
97.6
Previous
Italy’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 came in at 95.00, missing the consensus estimate of 97.60 and falling from the previous 97.60 reading. This 2.60-point decline signals a contraction in consumer sentiment, reversing recent gains and reflecting heightened caution amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, persistent inflation and cautious monetary policy may keep consumer spending subdued, pressuring equity markets and prompting close ECB monitoring. Updated 11/27/25
Consumer Confidence - IT
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Italy’s Consumer Confidence Dips in November 2025: A Data-Driven Analysis
This report analyzes the latest Consumer Confidence reading for Italy (IT), released on November 27, 2025. Drawing on the Sigmanomics database, we compare the current figure with historical data and assess its broader macroeconomic implications. The analysis covers geographic and temporal scope, core macroeconomic indicators, monetary and fiscal policy, external risks, financial market sentiment, and structural trends. We conclude with forward-looking scenarios and market relevance.
Italy’s Consumer Confidence index fell to 95.00 in November 2025, below the market estimate of 97.60 and the previous month’s 97.60 reading. This marks a notable decline from the 12-month average of 96.70, signaling a weakening in household sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainties. The geographic scope is national, covering Italy’s consumer base, with temporal focus on the latest monthly release and comparisons to the past year.
Drivers this month
Rising inflationary pressures, especially in energy and food sectors, dampened consumer optimism.
Concerns over employment stability amid global supply chain disruptions.
Weaker retail sales growth and cautious spending patterns.
Policy pulse
The reading remains below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target zone, reflecting subdued consumer confidence despite ongoing accommodative monetary policy. The ECB’s recent rate hikes have yet to translate into stronger sentiment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release. Italian government bond yields (BTP 10Y) rose modestly by 5 basis points, reflecting increased risk perception. The FTSE MIB index showed a slight decline of 0.30%, mirroring cautious investor sentiment.
The Consumer Confidence index is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 60% of Italy’s GDP. The current 95.00 reading contrasts with a peak of 98.80 in February 2025 and a low of 92.70 in April 2025, illustrating volatility tied to economic shocks and policy shifts.
Core macroeconomic indicators
GDP growth slowed to an annualized 0.80% in Q3 2025, down from 1.20% in Q2.
Inflation remains elevated at 4.10% YoY, driven by energy and food prices.
Unemployment rate steady at 7.50%, but youth unemployment remains high at 22%.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB has maintained a cautious stance, with key interest rates at 3.25%. Financial conditions have tightened slightly due to global rate normalization, impacting credit availability and consumer borrowing costs.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Italy’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP in 2025, aided by moderate spending restraint and improved tax collection. However, public debt remains elevated at 145% of GDP, limiting fiscal maneuverability.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence index of 95.00 is down from October’s 97.60 and below the 12-month average of 96.70. This decline reverses a two-month upward trend seen in September and October, where confidence had recovered from a low of 92.70 in April 2025.
The 2.60-point drop month-over-month is the largest since March 2025. This signals renewed caution among consumers, likely reflecting inflation persistence and geopolitical uncertainties.
Historical comparisons show that the current level is similar to readings during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2012, underscoring the fragility of consumer sentiment. The index has fluctuated between 92.70 and 98.80 over the past year, with the latest dip suggesting a potential stall in economic recovery momentum.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in consumer confidence, reversing recent gains. The data suggest consumers are increasingly wary of inflation and economic risks, which may translate into slower consumption growth in coming quarters.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/JPY declined 0.20% post-release. The Italian stock market’s FTSE MIB index fell 0.30%, while the 2-year Italian government bond yield rose by 7 basis points, reflecting heightened risk premiums.
Looking ahead, consumer confidence in Italy faces a complex outlook shaped by inflation trends, monetary policy, and external shocks. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Inflation eases below 3% by mid-2026, boosting real incomes.
ECB signals pause in rate hikes, improving borrowing conditions.
Consumer confidence rebounds above 100, supporting stronger consumption and GDP growth of 1.50% in 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Inflation remains sticky around 3.50%-4%, constraining purchasing power.
Monetary policy stays restrictive but stable.
Consumer confidence hovers near current levels (95-97), with GDP growth around 1.00%.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Energy price shocks or geopolitical tensions worsen inflation above 5%.
ECB tightens further, increasing borrowing costs.
Consumer confidence drops below 90, risking recession with GDP contraction of 0.50%.
Structural & long-run trends
Italy’s aging population and high public debt continue to weigh on long-term consumer sentiment. Structural reforms in labor markets and fiscal policy will be critical to sustain confidence and growth over the next decade.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading of 95.00 signals a cautious consumer base in Italy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. While monetary and fiscal policies provide some support, structural challenges and external shocks pose downside risks. Market reactions reflect this uncertainty, with modest declines in equities and currency pairs. Forward-looking scenarios emphasize the importance of inflation control and policy clarity to restore confidence and economic momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence data often influence equity, bond, and currency markets sensitive to economic growth and risk sentiment. The following five tradable symbols have historically shown strong correlations with Italy’s consumer sentiment:
EURUSD – Euro-dollar currency pair, sensitive to Eurozone economic data including Italy’s consumer confidence.
EURJPY – Reflects risk sentiment shifts tied to European economic indicators.
ENI – Major Italian energy company, influenced by consumer demand and energy price trends.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin pair, often reacts to shifts in risk appetite linked to macroeconomic confidence.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. FTSEMIB Since 2020
Since 2020, Italy’s Consumer Confidence index and the FTSEMIB have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of rising confidence, such as early 2021 and late 2024, coincided with strong equity rallies. Conversely, dips in confidence, notably during the 2022 inflation surge and mid-2025, aligned with market pullbacks. This relationship underscores the index’s value as a barometer for Italian equity market sentiment.
FAQs
What is the significance of Italy’s Consumer Confidence index?
The index gauges household optimism about the economy, influencing spending and GDP growth.
How does consumer confidence affect financial markets?
Higher confidence typically boosts equities and the currency, while declines increase risk aversion.
What factors drive changes in Italy’s Consumer Confidence?
Inflation, employment, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks are key drivers.
Takeaway: Italy’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence decline highlights persistent economic challenges. Monitoring inflation and policy responses will be crucial for near-term recovery prospects.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - IT Events
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.743
5.15
4.5
5.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.08
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.17
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-2.6
-1.2
-2.40
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1
-1.1
1
1.38
High
07:30
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.13
High
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46.6
45
46
44.93
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.4
51.7
52.6
52.20
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.8
50.3
50.5
50.33
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-13.4
4.7
1
-1.18
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-1.1
-2.5
-2.2
-0.85
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
Medium
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
47.4
48.5
49.08
High
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.1
98.9
99.2
99.05
Medium
10:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.1
87.6
87.5
87.22
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.18
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0
-0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.5
6.9
7
6.93
High
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.7
-4.8
-4
-4.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.1
-1
1
0.53
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
4885
2346
1410
2310.50
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.065
6.377
5.55
6.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.47
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
0.9
1.7
1.67
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.2
-0.8
-0.85
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
45
46
48
46.93
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.3
51.3
51.1
50.93
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.7
53.7
52.9
52.50
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1
0.4
-0.9
-0.52
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.6
-3.3
1.3
0.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
0.5
0
0.02
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
4.7
15
13.2
11.02
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7
6.9
6.8
6.73
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
45.7
46.1
46.68
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-2.5
-3.5
-7.5
-6.15
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.85
Low
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.17
Low
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.18
High
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.9
0.8
0.3
-0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-4.8
-2
-2.5
-2.60
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.97
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.9
98.3
98
97.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
86.9
87
86.72
Medium
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2078
2410
2100
3000.50
Low
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.2
9.2
6.2
8.00
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.43
4.829
3.55
4.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-3
-2.1
-3.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-1
0.1
0.12
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.7
-2
-1.62
High
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46
49
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
15
-6.6
5.2
3.02
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
53.7
54.2
53.7
53.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.3
52.3
51.8
51.63
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.83
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.7
45.6
44.4
44.98
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
1
0.98
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.8
-2.8
1.5
1.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-2
-5.1
-3.4
-3.50
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-3.5
-5.9
-5.5
-4.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.3
96.4
97
96.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
86.8
88.2
88.7
88.42
Medium
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
10.5
3.8
4.5
6.30
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.77
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.807
4.296
4.25
5.02
Medium
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.9
-3.2
-3.1
-4.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1
-0.5
0.3
0.32
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1.9
1.9
2.5
2.88
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.33
High
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
49
48.5
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.3
52.6
53.4
53.23
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.2
54.3
54.4
54.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-6.6
7.5
12
9.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.6
47.3
48
48.58
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-5.1
-1.7
-0.9
-1.00
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-2.9
2
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.67
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.62
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-5.9
-9.6
-6.4
-5.05
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.4
87.7
88.1
87.82
Medium
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.2
96
95.85
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
Current Account
1500
2183
-450
450.50
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
3.8
7.4
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.341
6
4.77
5.54
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.97
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.88
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-1.7
-3.9
-2.3
-2.40
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2
-3.2
2.5
2.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.5
-3.3
-1.4
-2.60
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2
2.4
-0.4
-0.02
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
48.5
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.3
54.6
54.7
54.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.6
53.5
52.4
52.23
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.43
High
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.3
50.4
50
50.58
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.98
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.3
0.27
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1.2
1.17
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.75
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.47
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.42
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.17
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
95.2
96.5
96.9
96.75
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
88.4
89.5
89.22
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
5.9
13.3
12
13.80
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2306
-1128
-650
250.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.034
2.495
3.44
4.21
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0
1.2
1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.07
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-3.1
1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.6
-0.7
-0.4
-0.50
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.52
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-3.7
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2.4
1
0.5
0.88
High
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
51.1
50.7
50.53
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
52.2
53.2
52.80
High
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.13
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-3.7
12.8
17
14.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
48.7
48.8
49.38
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.8
-10.7
-9.5
-8.15
Low
11:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1
-1.7
0.4
0.75
Low
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.5
97
97.5
97.35
Medium
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.6
87.5
87.6
87.32
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
14.8
12.4
7.5
9.30
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-1091
1319
-4700
-3799.50
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.2
1.2
-0.5
-0.48
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Balance of Trade
2.655
5.614
-2.8
-2.03
Medium
10:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
10:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-0.1
0.3
0.7
1.08
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-1.1
0.1
0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1.7
-1
-0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.7
-16
-9
-7.65
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
51.6
50.9
49.83
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.52
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.2
51.2
52.3
51.90
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.1
50.7
51.5
51.33
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
12.8
10.6
9.5
7.32
Low
11:00
IT
Government Budget
-7.2
-8.6
-5.2
-6.20
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
4
0.8
0.85
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
3.7
0.8
0.85
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.88
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.37
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-1.1
0.3
0.25
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.9
1
0.97
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.5
49.1
49.68
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2.1
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-0.1
-3.4
-2.7
-2.80
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.3
88.1
88.7
88.42
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
97
96.4
96.9
96.75
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.27
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.78
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
1136
-558
320
1220.50
Low
09:10
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.9
3.7
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.614
3.889
3.65
4.42
Medium
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-1.3
0.9
0.92
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
-2.9
-2.2
-3.40
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
1.5
1
1.38
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.3
87.3
95
94.72
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.8
106
105.85
Medium
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
51.6
55.2
54.5
53.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.2
49.8
50.8
50.40
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.7
48.6
49.4
49.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
10.6
5.9
4
1.82
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.3
-1.35
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.08
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.67
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
120
119.7
119.5
119.58
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
1
0.97
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.5
45.3
47.3
47.88
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.30
Low
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-1
0.1
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.53
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-16
-12.8
-14.8
-13.45
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-1.1
0.3
0.65
Low
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
0.00
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.1
0
0.07
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.37
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:15
IT
Construction Output YoY
1.5
2.7
1.2
3.00
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-363
3209
2500
3400.50
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.47
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.58
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
3.889
4.732
5.2
5.97
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.18
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.90
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.13
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.08
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.7
7.9
7.83
High
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Medium
10:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.37
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.68
High
08:30
IT
S&P Global Construction PMI
55.2
52.9
52.5
53.85
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI
48.6
48.1
48.5
48.55
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.40
Medium
08:45
IT
S&P Global Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.80
High
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
44.4
44.4
44.98
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Consumer Confidence in Italy Falls Below Expectations in November 2025 Italy’s Consumer Confidence Index Declines to 95.00 in November Consumer Confidence measures how optimistic households feel about the economy and their financial situation. Italy’s latest Consumer Confidence index dropped to 95.00 in November 2025, down from October’s 97.60 and missing the forecast of 97.60. This marks a notable decline in sentiment, reflecting growing concerns over inflation and job security. Fast facts: the index is 1.70% lower than last year, down 2.60 points from last month, and was released on November 27, 2025. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief European economist, “The dip in Italy’s Consumer Confidence signals that inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks are weighing heavily on household spending outlooks.” Despite the European Central Bank’s steady monetary policy, consumers remain cautious, which could slow Italy’s economic growth in the near term.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence index of 95.00 is down from October’s 97.60 and below the 12-month average of 96.70. This decline reverses a two-month upward trend seen in September and October, where confidence had recovered from a low of 92.70 in April 2025.
The 2.60-point drop month-over-month is the largest since March 2025. This signals renewed caution among consumers, likely reflecting inflation persistence and geopolitical uncertainties.