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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Business Confidence fell to 44.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Business Confidence fell to 44.9% in September 2026, down 1.4% from August's 46.3% reading. The reading matched the 45.7% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.3%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 45.2%, vs 46.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
44.9
Actual
45.7
Consensus
46.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 45.6
Actual: 44.9
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Brazil) was reported at 44.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 45.7% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 46.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 46.78%, ranging from 44.4% to 48.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 45.2%, down from the prior three at 46.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.06%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 48.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - BR
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About Business Confidence — Brazil
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 44.9 %, consensus 45.7 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 44.9 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 46.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |