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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada GDP Growth Annualized climbed to -0.1% in January 2026
Statistics CanadaQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Canada GDP Growth Annualized climbed to -0.1% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 0.9% from December's -1.0% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 1.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.04%.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
1.5
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.85 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.5
Actual: -0.1
Error: +1.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Annualized (Canada) was reported at -0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 1.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.63%, down from the prior three at 1.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.85%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 9) and BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jun 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Annualized - CA
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About GDP Growth Annualized — Canada
DEFINITION
GDP Growth Annualized is a key economic indicator that measures the annualized rate of change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy, as well as its ability to produce goods and services. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, businesses, and investors as it can impact financial markets and influence policy decisions. A positive GDP Growth Annualized indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth rate may signal a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -0.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.