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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada GDP Growth Annualized climbed to 3.3% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Canada GDP Growth Annualized climbed to 3.3% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 3.0% from March's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the 3.4% consensus. GDP Growth Annualized has now risen for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Annualized is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.4
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 3.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Annualized (Canada) was reported at 3.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.87%, down from the prior three at 1.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Annualized - CA
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About GDP Growth Annualized — Canada
DEFINITION
GDP Growth Annualized is a key economic indicator that measures the annualized rate of change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy, as well as its ability to produce goods and services. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, businesses, and investors as it can impact financial markets and influence policy decisions. A positive GDP Growth Annualized indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth rate may signal a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |