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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada 5-Year Bond Auction climbed to 3.23% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada 5-Year Bond Auction climbed to 3.23% in July 2026, up 0.13% from June's 3.1% reading.
Latest Release
3.231000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.099000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Bond Auction (Canada) was reported at 3.23% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3%, ranging from 2.79% to 3.29% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.22%, up from the prior three at 2.98%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In July readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Bond Auction has averaged 3.26%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/TSX Composite, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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5-Year Bond Auction - CA
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About 5-Year Bond Auction — Canada
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Bond Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for government bonds with a maturity of five years. It is a key event in the bond market, as it provides insight into investor sentiment and the government's ability to raise funds. The auction involves the sale of these bonds to the highest bidder, with the interest rate determined by market forces. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact interest rates, bond yields, and overall market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.231 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.135 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.289 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |