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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada 5-Year Bond Auction climbed to 3.57% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada 5-Year Bond Auction climbed to 3.57% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.06% from August's 3.52% reading.
Latest Release
3.574000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.517000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Bond Auction (Canada) was reported at 3.57% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.52%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.13%, ranging from 2.79% to 3.57% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.48%, up from the prior three at 3.22%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Bond Auction has averaged 3.06%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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5-Year Bond Auction - CA
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About 5-Year Bond Auction — Canada
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Bond Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for government bonds with a maturity of five years. It is a key event in the bond market, as it provides insight into investor sentiment and the government's ability to raise funds. The auction involves the sale of these bonds to the highest bidder, with the interest rate determined by market forces. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact interest rates, bond yields, and overall market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.574 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 3.517 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.344 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |