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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI Median YoY fell to 2.4% in December 2024
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased January 2025
Canada CPI Median YoY fell to 2.4% in December 2024, released January 2025, down 0.2% from November's 2.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.74%. Over the past 3 months, CPI Median YoY averaged 2.55%, vs 2.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 2.48
Actual: 2.4
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI Median YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.4% in January 2025. This matched the market consensus of 2.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, up from the prior three at 2.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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CPI Median YoY - CA
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About CPI Median YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
CPI Median YoY stands for Consumer Price Index Median Year-over-Year and is a key financial indicator used to measure the average change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period. It specifically focuses on the median, or middle, price changes, providing a more accurate representation of overall price trends. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess inflation and make informed decisions regarding monetary policies and investments.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 2.6 %. Before that (Oct 2024): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.