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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada New Housing Price Index YoY fell to -0.6% in April 2025
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2025
Canada New Housing Price Index YoY fell to -0.6% in April 2025, released May 2025, down 0.7% from March's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.03%. Over the past 3 months, New Housing Price Index YoY averaged 0.1%, vs 0.03% in the prior 3-month window. New Housing Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 14 months.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2025
Predicted: 0.13
Actual: -0.6
Error: +0.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Housing Price Index YoY (Canada) was reported at -0.6% in May 2025. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.13%, down from the prior three at 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2025.
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New Housing Price Index YoY - CA
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About New Housing Price Index YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
The New Housing Price Index YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the prices of newly built homes in a specific market. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and trends of the housing market, as well as the impact of new construction on housing prices. This indicator is widely used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the strength and stability of the real estate sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2025): actual -0.6 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2025): 0.1 %. Before that (Feb 2025): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.