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Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY fell to 2.5% in December 2024, released January 2025, down 0.1% from November's 2.6% reading. The reading matched expectations.
across last 12 releases
Jan 2025
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.5% in January 2025. This matched the market consensus of 2.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The trailing three releases averaged 2.6%, up from the prior three at 2.5%.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (May 28) and Financial Stability Report (May 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY is a widely used financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) after removing extreme price movements. This indicator provides a more accurate representation of inflation by excluding volatile price changes, such as those caused by seasonal fluctuations or one-time events. It is considered a reliable measure of underlying inflation trends and is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall health of the economy.
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 2.7 %. Before that (Oct 2024): 2.6 %.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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| Monday, May 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 3 | 1.4 | -0.45 | Low | ||
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Current Account | -0.7 | -3.4 | -3.40 | Medium | ||