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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada 10-Year Bond Auction fell to 3.89% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada 10-Year Bond Auction fell to 3.89% in October 2026, down 0.08% from September's 3.97% reading.
Latest Release
3.887000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.966000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year Bond Auction (Canada) was reported at 3.89% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.97%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.55%, ranging from 3.23% to 3.97% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.85%, up from the prior three at 3.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year Bond Auction has averaged 3.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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10-Year Bond Auction - CA
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About 10-Year Bond Auction — Canada
DEFINITION
The 10-Year Bond Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for government-issued bonds with a maturity of 10 years. It is a key event in the bond market, as it provides insight into the current state of the economy and investor confidence in the government's ability to repay its debt. The results of the auction can impact interest rates and serve as a gauge for future economic trends. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can have significant implications for the overall financial market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.887 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 3.966 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.707 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |