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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI YoY climbed to 3.1% in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada CPI YoY climbed to 3.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from August's 3.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.66%. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 3.0%, vs 2.67% in the prior 3-month window. CPI YoY is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.2
Actual: 3.1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Canada) was reported at 3.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.77%, ranging from 2.3% to 3.1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.03%, up from the prior three at 2.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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CPI YoY - CA
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About CPI YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI YoY for October came in at 3.100%, slightly below the 3.200% estimate but up from September's 3.000%. This marks a modest acceleration in inflation, indicating persistent price pressures despite expectations. Market participants will watch upcoming central bank communications closely for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 10/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |