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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI YoY fell to 2.5% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada CPI YoY fell to 2.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from March's 2.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.3%.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.6% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI YoY - CA
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About CPI YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI YoY for May rose to 2.5%, missing the 2.6% estimate but up from April's 2.3%. The increase from April to May signals a modest acceleration in inflation after a slight dip in the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming Bank of Canada communications closely for guidance on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 5/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.