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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI YoY climbed to 2.7% in May 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada CPI YoY climbed to 2.7% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.2% from April's 2.5% reading. The print came in hotter than the 2.5% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.45
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Canada) was reported at 3% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Common CPI YoY (Sep 14) and Median CPI YoY (Sep 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI YoY - CA
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About CPI YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI YoY rose to 3.000000% in August, up from July's 2.800000%, marking a notable acceleration in inflation. This increase reverses the prior downward trend seen since March, when CPI was 2.4%. The stronger inflation reading may influence market expectations and the Bank of Canada's monetary policy stance. Updated 8/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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