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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI YoY climbed to 2.7% in May 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada CPI YoY climbed to 2.7% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.2% from April's 2.5% reading. The print came in hotter than the 2.5% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.45
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.8% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI YoY - CA
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About CPI YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI YoY for July came in at 1.800000%, missing the 2.000000% estimate and down from June's 2.000000%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, easing from May's 2.5% and April's 2.3%. Market focus will remain on upcoming Bank of Canada communications amid this cooling inflation trend. Updated 7/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 15:00 | CA | Budget Balance | -0.31 | -1.05 | -6.4 | -3.35 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | Balance of Trade | 4.24 | 3 | 5.34 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Imports | 72.86 | 70.2 | 71.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Exports | 77.1 | 75 | 78.63 | Low | |