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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -0.05% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -0.05% in May 2026, down 0.75% from April's 0.7% reading.
Latest Release
-0.050000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.700000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Canada) was reported at -0.05% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, down from the prior three at 1.96%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jul 23) and Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - CA
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Gross Domestic Product YoY contracted by -0.050000% in May 2026, a sharp decline from February's 0.700000% growth. This marks a reversal from expansion to contraction over the three-month span. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data for signs of economic stabilization amid this downturn. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.05 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.72 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.42 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |