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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade Yuan climbed to 809.3 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Balance of Trade Yuan climbed to 809.3 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 42.23 from July's 767.07 reading. The reading matched the 795 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 658.11. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade Yuan averaged 813.06, vs 554.81 in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
809.3
Actual
795
Consensus
767.07
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.44
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 811.53
Actual: 809.3
Error: +2.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade Yuan (China) was reported at 809.30 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 795.00 by 14.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 767.07. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade Yuan - CN
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About Balance of Trade Yuan — China
DEFINITION
China's Balance of Trade Yuan for August came in at 809.300000, beating the estimate of 795.000000. This represents an increase from July's 767.070000, indicating a strengthening trade surplus. The data supports a stable outlook for China's trade sector ahead of upcoming economic reports. Updated 9/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 809.3, consensus 795. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 767.1. Before that (Jun 2026): 859.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |