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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade Yuan fell to 767.07 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China Balance of Trade Yuan fell to 767.07 in July 2026, released August 2026, down 91.98 from June's 859.05 reading. The reading matched the 740 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 630.87. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade Yuan averaged 791.52, vs 470.22 in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
767.07
Actual
740
Consensus
859.05
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.44
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 771.51
Actual: 767.07
Error: +4.44
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade Yuan (China) was reported at 767.07 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 740.00 by 27.07. The reading fell from the previous value of 859.05. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Aug 20) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade Yuan - CN
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About Balance of Trade Yuan — China
DEFINITION
China's Balance of Trade Yuan for July came in at 767.070000, beating the estimate of 740.000000 but down from June's 859.050000. The trade surplus narrowed month-over-month, indicating a moderation in export strength after June's peak. Market focus remains on upcoming trade data and central bank policy amid this easing trend. Updated 8/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 767.1, consensus 740. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 859.1. Before that (May 2026): 724.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -6.7 | -5.7 | -6.2 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.05 | High |
| 07:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5 | 4.75 | High |
| 07:00 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.30 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |