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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina CPI YoY fell to 0.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China CPI YoY fell to 0.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.5% from June's 1.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.13%.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (China) was reported at 0.5% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Aug 20) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI YoY - CN
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About CPI YoY — China
DEFINITION
China's CPI YoY for July came in at 0.50%, missing the 0.80% estimate and down from June's 1.20%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, with July's reading significantly below the prior month, indicating subdued price pressures. Market focus will remain on upcoming data for further signs of inflation trends and potential policy adjustments. Updated 8/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -6.7 | -5.7 | -6.2 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.05 | High |
| 07:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5 | 4.75 | High |
| 07:00 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.30 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |