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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Unemployment Rate fell to 5.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Unemployment Rate fell to 5.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 5.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now declined for 4 consecutive months. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
5.3
Consensus
5.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 5.25
Actual: 5.3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Brazil) was reported at 5.3% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.45%, ranging from 5.1% to 5.8% across 19 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.33%, down from the prior three at 5.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.43%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 6.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Sep 18) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - BR
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About Unemployment Rate — Brazil
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.3 Percent, consensus 5.3 Percent. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.4 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.8 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium |