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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Balance of Trade EU fell to -0.33B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Balance of Trade EU fell to -0.33B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.59B from August's 1.26B reading.
Latest Release
-0.330000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.260000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade EU (Italy) was reported at -0.33 billion in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.26 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.43 billion, ranging from -1.08 billion to 1.58 billion across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.83 billion, up from the prior three at 0.03 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade EU - IT
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About Balance of Trade EU — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Balance of Trade EU for September registered at -0.330 billion EUR, a sharp reversal from August's surplus of 1.260 billion EUR. The deficit marks a significant deterioration from the previous month’s positive balance, indicating a contraction in trade performance. Market focus will remain on upcoming trade data and ECB policy amid this unexpected shift. Updated 10/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.33 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.25 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.58 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |