Pmi - IT Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Italy PMI
53.8
Actual
53.2
Consensus
53.1
Previous
Italy’s December 2025 PMI for IT rose to 53.80, beating the consensus estimate of 53.20 and signaling stronger-than-expected manufacturing expansion. This marks a 0.70-point increase from November’s 53.10, confirming sustained growth above the 50 threshold. Looking ahead, the resilient PMI suggests continued industrial momentum despite monetary tightening and geopolitical risks, warranting close monitoring of policy impacts. Updated 12/3/25
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Italy’s December 2025 PMI: A Stronger Expansion Amid Mixed Macro Signals
Italy’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December 2025 rose to 53.80, beating estimates and marking a steady acceleration from 53.10 in November. This signals sustained expansion in the manufacturing sector despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and tighter monetary conditions. The data suggests resilience in Italy’s industrial output, though risks from external shocks and fiscal constraints remain. Market reaction was muted but cautious, reflecting balanced upside and downside risks for growth in early 2026.
The latest PMI reading for Italy’s manufacturing sector, released on December 3, 2025, shows a robust improvement to 53.80, surpassing the consensus estimate of 53.20 and the November figure of 53.10. This marks the highest PMI level since mid-2024, indicating a solid expansion phase. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the national manufacturing sector and reflects conditions over the past month.
Drivers this month
Stronger new orders contributed 0.40 points to the PMI increase.
Employment growth remained steady, supporting production capacity.
The PMI reading remains comfortably above the 50 threshold, signaling expansion consistent with the European Central Bank’s inflation target zone. However, ongoing monetary tightening and elevated borrowing costs could temper momentum in coming months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.10% post-release, reflecting cautious sentiment amid mixed macro signals. Italian government bond spreads tightened marginally, indicating moderate investor confidence.
Italy’s PMI at 53.80 compares favorably to the 12-month average of 51.70, underscoring a notable acceleration in manufacturing activity. This aligns with other core macroeconomic indicators showing moderate GDP growth of 0.30% QoQ in Q3 2025 and a stable unemployment rate near 7.50%. Inflation remains elevated at 3.20% YoY but has shown signs of peaking.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The European Central Bank’s recent rate hikes have increased borrowing costs, yet Italy’s manufacturing PMI suggests firms are still investing and expanding. The tighter financial conditions have not yet curtailed industrial output, but the lagged effects warrant close monitoring.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Italy’s fiscal stance remains cautious, with a budget deficit target of 3.50% of GDP for 2025. Limited fiscal stimulus constrains demand-side support, placing greater emphasis on private sector resilience reflected in the PMI data.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Persistent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. However, Italy’s diversified export base and improved supply chain logistics have helped mitigate these shocks recently.
The December PMI of 53.80 marks a 0.70-point increase from November’s 53.10 and is well above the 12-month average of 51.70. This upward trend reflects stronger new orders and improved supplier delivery times, signaling healthier demand and supply conditions.
Compared to August 2025’s 51.50, the PMI has risen 2.30 points, indicating a sustained recovery trajectory in Italy’s manufacturing sector over the past four months.
Supplier delivery times shortened by 0.30 days on average, while inventories rose modestly, suggesting firms are preparing for continued demand growth. Input price inflation eased to 2.10% MoM, down from 2.80% in November, reducing cost pressures.
This chart highlights a clear upward momentum in Italy’s manufacturing PMI, reversing the stagnation seen in mid-2025. The trend suggests expanding industrial activity, supported by improving demand and easing input costs, which bodes well for Italy’s near-term economic growth prospects.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Italian 10-year bond yields fell by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor sentiment. The EUR/JPY pair remained stable, indicating limited currency volatility following the PMI release.
Looking ahead, Italy’s manufacturing sector faces a mix of opportunities and challenges. The PMI’s upward trajectory suggests continued expansion, but external and domestic risks could influence the pace.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Global demand rebounds strongly, boosting exports.
Supply chain normalizes further, reducing costs.
Fiscal stimulus is modestly increased, supporting investment.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Steady but moderate growth continues, with PMI stabilizing near 53.
Monetary policy remains restrictive but manageable.
Geopolitical tensions persist but do not escalate.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
New supply shocks or energy price spikes raise costs.
Italy’s manufacturing sector is gradually shifting towards higher value-added production and digitalization. The PMI’s recent strength may reflect early benefits from these structural changes, which could enhance competitiveness over the medium term.
The December 2025 PMI reading of 53.80 confirms Italy’s manufacturing sector is in a phase of steady expansion. While monetary tightening and geopolitical risks pose challenges, the sector’s resilience is encouraging. Policymakers should balance inflation control with growth support to sustain momentum. Investors and market participants will watch upcoming data closely for signs of sustained recovery or emerging headwinds.
Key Markets Likely to React to PMI
The PMI is a critical gauge of Italy’s industrial health and often influences related financial markets. Key assets historically sensitive to PMI shifts include Italian government bonds, the euro currency, and select equity and crypto markets tied to economic cycles.
ENI – Italy’s energy giant, sensitive to industrial demand and economic growth.
EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair reacts to Eurozone economic data including Italy’s PMI.
STM – STMicroelectronics, a bellwether for European manufacturing and tech demand.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reflects risk sentiment linked to macroeconomic trends.
EURJPY – Euro-yen pair sensitive to risk appetite and Eurozone economic outlook.
Insight: PMI vs. ENI Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, Italy’s PMI and ENI stock price have shown a positive correlation, with ENI rising during PMI expansions and dipping during contractions. The 2025 PMI increase to 53.80 aligns with a 7% rise in ENI shares over the past three months, underscoring the link between industrial activity and energy sector performance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Italy PMI indicate about economic growth?
The PMI above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing, suggesting positive momentum for Italy’s economic growth.
How does the PMI affect monetary policy decisions?
Strong PMI readings may reduce pressure for rate cuts, while weak readings could prompt easing to support growth.
Why is the PMI important for investors?
PMI provides early insight into industrial trends, helping investors anticipate market moves and sector performance.
Takeaway: Italy’s December 2025 PMI signals a resilient manufacturing sector poised for moderate growth, balancing risks from tighter monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties.
Author: John Smith, Senior Economic Analyst
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 12/3/25
Economic Calendar - IT Events
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.743
5.15
4.5
5.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.08
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.17
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-2.6
-1.2
-2.40
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1
-1.1
1
1.38
High
07:30
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.13
High
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46.6
45
46
44.93
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.4
51.7
52.6
52.20
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.8
50.3
50.5
50.33
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-13.4
4.7
1
-1.18
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-1.1
-2.5
-2.2
-0.85
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
Medium
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
47.4
48.5
49.08
High
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.1
98.9
99.2
99.05
Medium
10:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.1
87.6
87.5
87.22
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.18
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0
-0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.5
6.9
7
6.93
High
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.7
-4.8
-4
-4.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.1
-1
1
0.53
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
4885
2346
1410
2310.50
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.065
6.377
5.55
6.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.47
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
0.9
1.7
1.67
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.2
-0.8
-0.85
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
45
46
48
46.93
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.3
51.3
51.1
50.93
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.7
53.7
52.9
52.50
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1
0.4
-0.9
-0.52
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.6
-3.3
1.3
0.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
0.5
0
0.02
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
4.7
15
13.2
11.02
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7
6.9
6.8
6.73
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
45.7
46.1
46.68
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-2.5
-3.5
-7.5
-6.15
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.85
Low
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.17
Low
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.18
High
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.9
0.8
0.3
-0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-4.8
-2
-2.5
-2.60
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.97
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.9
98.3
98
97.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
86.9
87
86.72
Medium
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2078
2410
2100
3000.50
Low
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.2
9.2
6.2
8.00
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.43
4.829
3.55
4.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-3
-2.1
-3.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-1
0.1
0.12
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.7
-2
-1.62
High
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46
49
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
15
-6.6
5.2
3.02
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
53.7
54.2
53.7
53.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.3
52.3
51.8
51.63
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.83
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.7
45.6
44.4
44.98
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
1
0.98
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.8
-2.8
1.5
1.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-2
-5.1
-3.4
-3.50
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-3.5
-5.9
-5.5
-4.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.3
96.4
97
96.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
86.8
88.2
88.7
88.42
Medium
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
10.5
3.8
4.5
6.30
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.77
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.807
4.296
4.25
5.02
Medium
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.9
-3.2
-3.1
-4.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1
-0.5
0.3
0.32
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1.9
1.9
2.5
2.88
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.33
High
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
49
48.5
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.3
52.6
53.4
53.23
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.2
54.3
54.4
54.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-6.6
7.5
12
9.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.6
47.3
48
48.58
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-5.1
-1.7
-0.9
-1.00
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-2.9
2
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.67
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.62
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-5.9
-9.6
-6.4
-5.05
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.4
87.7
88.1
87.82
Medium
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.2
96
95.85
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
Current Account
1500
2183
-450
450.50
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
3.8
7.4
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.341
6
4.77
5.54
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.97
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.88
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-1.7
-3.9
-2.3
-2.40
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2
-3.2
2.5
2.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.5
-3.3
-1.4
-2.60
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2
2.4
-0.4
-0.02
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
48.5
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.3
54.6
54.7
54.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.6
53.5
52.4
52.23
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.43
High
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.3
50.4
50
50.58
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.98
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.3
0.27
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1.2
1.17
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.75
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.47
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.42
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.17
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
95.2
96.5
96.9
96.75
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
88.4
89.5
89.22
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
5.9
13.3
12
13.80
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2306
-1128
-650
250.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.034
2.495
3.44
4.21
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0
1.2
1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.07
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-3.1
1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.6
-0.7
-0.4
-0.50
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.52
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-3.7
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2.4
1
0.5
0.88
High
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
51.1
50.7
50.53
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
52.2
53.2
52.80
High
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.13
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-3.7
12.8
17
14.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
48.7
48.8
49.38
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.8
-10.7
-9.5
-8.15
Low
11:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1
-1.7
0.4
0.75
Low
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.5
97
97.5
97.35
Medium
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.6
87.5
87.6
87.32
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
14.8
12.4
7.5
9.30
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-1091
1319
-4700
-3799.50
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.2
1.2
-0.5
-0.48
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Balance of Trade
2.655
5.614
-2.8
-2.03
Medium
10:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
10:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-0.1
0.3
0.7
1.08
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-1.1
0.1
0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1.7
-1
-0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.7
-16
-9
-7.65
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
51.6
50.9
49.83
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.52
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.2
51.2
52.3
51.90
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.1
50.7
51.5
51.33
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
12.8
10.6
9.5
7.32
Low
11:00
IT
Government Budget
-7.2
-8.6
-5.2
-6.20
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
4
0.8
0.85
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
3.7
0.8
0.85
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.88
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.37
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-1.1
0.3
0.25
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.9
1
0.97
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.5
49.1
49.68
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2.1
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-0.1
-3.4
-2.7
-2.80
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.3
88.1
88.7
88.42
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
97
96.4
96.9
96.75
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.27
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.78
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
1136
-558
320
1220.50
Low
09:10
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.9
3.7
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.614
3.889
3.65
4.42
Medium
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-1.3
0.9
0.92
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
-2.9
-2.2
-3.40
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
1.5
1
1.38
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.3
87.3
95
94.72
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.8
106
105.85
Medium
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
51.6
55.2
54.5
53.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.2
49.8
50.8
50.40
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.7
48.6
49.4
49.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
10.6
5.9
4
1.82
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.3
-1.35
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.08
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.67
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
120
119.7
119.5
119.58
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
1
0.97
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.5
45.3
47.3
47.88
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.30
Low
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-1
0.1
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.53
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-16
-12.8
-14.8
-13.45
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-1.1
0.3
0.65
Low
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
0.00
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.1
0
0.07
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.37
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:15
IT
Construction Output YoY
1.5
2.7
1.2
3.00
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-363
3209
2500
3400.50
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.47
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.58
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
3.889
4.732
5.2
5.97
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.18
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.90
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.13
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.08
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.7
7.9
7.83
High
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Medium
10:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.37
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.68
High
08:30
IT
S&P Global Construction PMI
55.2
52.9
52.5
53.85
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI
48.6
48.1
48.5
48.55
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.40
Medium
08:45
IT
S&P Global Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.80
High
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
44.4
44.4
44.98
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
PMI Italy Rises to 53.80 Indicating Stronger Manufacturing Growth Italy’s December PMI Shows Solid Expansion Above Expectations The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Italy, a key gauge of manufacturing health where readings above 50 signal growth, climbed to 53.80 in December 2025. This latest figure beats the forecast of 53.20 and improves on November’s 53.10, reflecting a steady acceleration in Italy’s industrial activity. Fast facts: PMI at 53.80, up 0.70 points from last month; surpasses consensus estimate; released December 3, 2025. The rise suggests resilient demand and easing input cost pressures despite tighter monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties. JPMorgan analysts note that Italy’s manufacturing sector continues to defy headwinds, supported by stronger new orders and stable employment. While the European Central Bank’s rate hikes have raised borrowing costs, Italy’s PMI signals firms remain confident in near-term growth. This data points to a cautiously optimistic outlook for Italy’s economy as it navigates external risks and fiscal constraints.
The December PMI of 53.80 marks a 0.70-point increase from November’s 53.10 and is well above the 12-month average of 51.70. This upward trend reflects stronger new orders and improved supplier delivery times, signaling healthier demand and supply conditions.
Compared to August 2025’s 51.50, the PMI has risen 2.30 points, indicating a sustained recovery trajectory in Italy’s manufacturing sector over the past four months.