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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil Selic Rate held to 14.25 Percent in August 2026
Emerging Markets compositeDailyReleased August 2026
Brazil Brazil Selic Rate held to 14.25 Percent in August 2026.
Latest Release
14.250000
Actual
—
Consensus
14.250000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil Selic Rate (Brazil) was reported at 14.25 Percent in August 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.81 Percent, ranging from 14.25 Percent to 15.00 Percent across 369 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 14.25 Percent, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.69 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, Brazil Selic Rate has averaged 12.99 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Brazil Selic Rate - BR
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About Brazil Selic Rate — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil Selic Rate held steady at 14.500000 percent in June, unchanged from May's 14.500000 percent. The central bank maintained the rate at this level, signaling a pause in monetary tightening. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data for clues on future policy moves. Updated 6/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 14.25 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 14.25 Percent. Before that (Aug 2026): 14.25 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.8 | 50.80 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | BR | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | 9.90 | Medium | |