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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil Selic Rate held to 14 Percent in September 2026
Emerging Markets compositeDailyReleased September 2026
Brazil Brazil Selic Rate held to 14 Percent in September 2026.
Latest Release
14.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
14.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil Selic Rate (Brazil) was reported at 14.00 Percent in September 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.72 Percent, ranging from 14.00 Percent to 15.00 Percent across 404 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 14.00 Percent, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.69 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Brazil Selic Rate has averaged 13.06 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Copom Meeting Minutes (Aug 11) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Brazil Selic Rate - BR
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About Brazil Selic Rate — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil Selic Rate held steady at 14.250000 percent in July, matching the previous month's level. July's 14.25 percent remained unchanged from June's 14.25 percent, maintaining the current monetary policy stance. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data for further guidance. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 14 Percent. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 14 Percent. Before that (Sep 2026): 14 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.16 | 0.1 | 0.09 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.64 | 4.5 | 4.49 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.23 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.4 | 44.8 | 44.80 | Medium | |