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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia CPI YoY climbed to 4.3% in September 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia CPI YoY climbed to 4.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's 4.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.58%. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 3.7%, vs 3.63% in the prior 3-month window. CPI YoY is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.23
Actual: 4.3
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 4.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.71%, ranging from 3.3% to 4.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.93%, up from the prior three at 3.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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CPI YoY - AU
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About CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia's CPI YoY for October rose to 4.300%, surpassing the 4.200% estimate and up from September's 4.000%. This acceleration signals persistent inflationary pressures despite previous moderation. Market focus will remain on the Reserve Bank's next moves amid ongoing inflation concerns. Updated 10/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 4.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |