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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia CPI YoY fell to 3.5% in July 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
Australia CPI YoY fell to 3.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.3% from June's 3.8% reading. The print came in hotter than the 3.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 3.7%, vs 3.37% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.25
Actual: 3.5
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 3.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI YoY - AU
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About CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia's CPI YoY for August came in at 3.5%, beating the 3.3% estimate but down from July's 3.8%. The inflation rate eased from the prior month, signaling a moderation in price pressures after a peak in July. Market focus will remain on upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia communications for further policy direction. Updated 8/26/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |