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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia CPI YoY climbed to 4.0% in August 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia CPI YoY climbed to 4.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.5% from July's 3.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.5%. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 3.65%, vs 3.47% in the prior 3-month window. CPI YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
4
Actual
4.1
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.1
Actual: 4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.1% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.62%, ranging from 3.3% to 4% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.77%, up from the prior three at 3.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Ai Group Industry Index (Oct 6) and Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Oct 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI YoY - AU
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About CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia's CPI YoY rose to 4.000000% in September, missing the 4.100000% estimate but up from August's 3.5%. This marks a clear acceleration in inflation compared to the prior month, indicating renewed price pressures. Markets will watch for central bank responses amid this upward trend. Updated 9/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Monday, October 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Low |
| 23:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.4 | 84.4 | 83.4 | 81.90 | Medium |
| 23:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -4.7 | -5.2 | -1.2 | -2.95 | High |
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | 2.2 | 2.6 | -1.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 22:00 | AU | Ai Group Construction Index | -6.9 | -7 | -7.00 | Low | |
| 22:00 | AU | Ai Group Industry Index | -3.5 | -4 | -4.00 | Medium | |
| 22:00 | AU | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -16.6 | -16 | -16.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Building Permits YoY | 9 | 17.7 | 17.70 | Low | |
| 00:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM | -3.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | AU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | Low | |