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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ fell to 0.8% in Q1 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased April 2026
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ fell to 0.8% in Q1 2026, released April 2026, down 0.1% from December's 0.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.9% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ has now declined for 3 consecutive months. RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.9
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 0.9
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Australia) was reported at 0.8% in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.83%, up from the prior three at 0.67%. In January readings over the past 3 years, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ has averaged 0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ - AU
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About RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA trimmed mean CPI QoQ is a widely recognized financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure the quarterly change in consumer prices, excluding the most volatile components. This indicator provides a more stable and accurate representation of inflation trends, allowing policymakers to make informed decisions on monetary policy. It is considered a key measure of overall price stability and is closely monitored by economists and investors.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.9 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.