Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia House Price Index YoY fell to -5.1% in October 2018
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2019
Australia House Price Index YoY fell to -5.1% in October 2018, released March 2019, down 3.2% from September's -1.9% reading. The reading missed the -0.4% consensus by 4.7%. House Price Index YoY has now declined for 7 consecutive months. House Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 71 months.
Latest Release
-5.1
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
-1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Mar 2019
Predicted: -0.4
Actual: -5.1
Error: +4.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (Australia) was reported at 23.7% in March 2022. The reading rose from the previous value of 21.7%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 20.73%, up from the prior three at 5.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jun 18) and Full Time Employment Chg (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2022.
SHARE
House Price Index YoY - AU
Loading chart data...
About House Price Index YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2021): actual 23.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2021): 21.7 %. Before that (Apr 2021): 16.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.