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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM fell to 0.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM fell to 0.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from August's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.2%.
Latest Release
0.300000
Actual
0.500000
Consensus
0.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM (Australia) was reported at 0.3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.34%, ranging from -0.3% to 1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, up from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.39%). In October readings over the past 3 years, TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM - AU
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About TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
The TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in consumer prices over the previous month. It is calculated by TD Bank and the Melbourne Institute, providing valuable insights into the current inflation trends in the economy. This indicator is widely used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the overall health of the economy and make informed decisions. With its timely and accurate data, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM is a crucial tool for monitoring inflation and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |