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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.9% from April's 0.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.6% consensus by 0.9%.
Latest Release
-0.300000
Actual
0.600000
Consensus
0.600000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.6
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Bearish S&P | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM (Australia) was reported at -0.3% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.24%, ranging from -0.3% to 1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.43%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In June readings over the past 3 years, TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM has averaged -0.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM - AU
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About TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
The TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in consumer prices over the previous month. It is calculated by TD Bank and the Melbourne Institute, providing valuable insights into the current inflation trends in the economy. This indicator is widely used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the overall health of the economy and make informed decisions. With its timely and accurate data, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM is a crucial tool for monitoring inflation and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.