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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY fell to 1.3% in January 2021
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased April 2021
Australia RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY fell to 1.3% in January 2021, released April 2021, down 0.1% from December's 1.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.39%. RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Apr 2021
Predicted: 1.3
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 1.3% in April 2021. This matched the market consensus of 1.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.33%, down from the prior three at 1.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2021.
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RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY - AU
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About RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY is a key financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure the average change in prices of goods and services over a one-year period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflation rate and helps inform monetary policy decisions. It is calculated using a weighted average of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for various categories, providing a comprehensive view of price movements in the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2021): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Oct 2020): 1.4 %. Before that (Oct 2020): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.