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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to 4.2% in December 2024
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased December 2024
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to 4.2% in December 2024, up 0.4% from November's 3.8% reading. The print exceeded the 3.5% consensus by 0.7%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectations averaged 3.9%, vs 4.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
3.5
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Dec 2024
Predicted: 3.43
Actual: 4.2
Error: -0.78
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectations (Australia) was reported at 4% in January 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.2%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4%, down from the prior three at 4.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Consumer Inflation Expectations - AU
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About Consumer Inflation Expectations — Australia
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectations is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence and expectations that consumers have regarding the future increase in prices of goods and services. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can provide insights into consumer spending behavior and potential changes in the overall economy. A higher level of consumer inflation expectations may indicate a potential rise in inflation, while a lower level may suggest a more stable or even declining inflation rate.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2025): actual 4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2025): 4 %. Before that (Dec 2024): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.