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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Leading Index MoM fell to -0.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Leading Index MoM fell to -0.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 0.0% reading. The reading matched the -0.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.05%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Index MoM averaged 0.0%, vs -0.04% in the prior 3-month window. Leading Index MoM is now the lowest in 20 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leading Index MoM (Australia) was reported at -0.1% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.02%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.1% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.03%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.07%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.07%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/ASX 200, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 16) and S&P Global Services PMI (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Leading Index MoM - AU
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About Leading Index MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
The Leading Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the changes in economic activity and predicts future trends. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer confidence, and housing starts, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This indicator is widely used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and anticipate potential shifts in the market. A positive change in the Leading Index MoM suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a potential economic downturn. Overall, the Leading Index MoM is a valuable tool for monitoring and forecasting economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Employment Change | -39.3 | 29.3 | 20 | -9.65 | High |
| 00:30 | AU | Participation Rate | 66.8 | 67 | 67 | 66.90 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Unemployment Rate | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.65 | High |