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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia House Price Index QoQ fell to 4.7% in Q4 2021
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2022
Australia House Price Index QoQ fell to 4.7% in Q4 2021, released March 2022, down 0.3% from September's 5.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.9% consensus by 0.8%. House Price Index QoQ has now declined for 3 consecutive months. House Price Index QoQ is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
4.7
Actual
3.9
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2022
Predicted: 3.9
Actual: 4.7
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index QoQ (Australia) was reported at 4.7% in March 2022. This beat the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.47%, up from the prior three at 3.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2022.
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House Price Index QoQ - AU
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About House Price Index QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
The House Price Index QoQ is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the quarterly change in the average selling price of residential properties. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and real estate professionals. By tracking the QoQ changes in house prices, this indicator helps to inform decision-making and assess the potential risks and opportunities in the real estate market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2021): actual 4.7 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2021): 5 %. Before that (Apr 2021): 6.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.