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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY held to 3.6% in June 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased July 2026
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY held to 3.6% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.9%. RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY is now the highest in 21 months.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.73
Actual: 3.6
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 3.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.53%, up from the prior three at 3.03%. In July readings over the past 3 years, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY has averaged 3.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Jul 31) and Ai Group Industry Index (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY - AU
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About RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA trimmed mean CPI YoY is a key financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure inflation and price stability. It calculates the average change in consumer prices over a 12-month period, excluding extreme price movements in order to provide a more accurate representation of underlying inflation trends. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers and investors as it can impact interest rates and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM | 7.2 | -1.6 | -1 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Price Index QoQ | 5.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits YoY | 8.9 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 1.10 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | 5.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.4 | 2.8 | -1 | -0.38 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.70 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.35 | Low |