Loading page content
Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY climbed to 3.4% in April 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY climbed to 3.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.1% from March's 3.3% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.78%.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.4
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 3.4% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.27%, up from the prior three at 2.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY - AU
Loading chart data...
About RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA trimmed mean CPI YoY is a key financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure inflation and price stability. It calculates the average change in consumer prices over a 12-month period, excluding extreme price movements in order to provide a more accurate representation of underlying inflation trends. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers and investors as it can impact interest rates and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.