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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY climbed to 3.6% in May 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY climbed to 3.6% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.2% from April's 3.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
3.5
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3.6
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 3.6% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.5% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.47%, up from the prior three at 2.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Jul 13) and Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY - AU
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About RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA trimmed mean CPI YoY is a key financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure inflation and price stability. It calculates the average change in consumer prices over a 12-month period, excluding extreme price movements in order to provide a more accurate representation of underlying inflation trends. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers and investors as it can impact interest rates and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.6 | 82.6 | 78.15 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -2.9 | 2.5 | -2.85 | High | |
| 01:30 | AU | NAB Business Confidence | -14 | -12 | -23.50 | High | |