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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Commodity Price Index held to 117.38 in September 2026
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia RBA Commodity Price Index held to 117.38 in September 2026.
Latest Release
117.376428
Actual
—
Consensus
117.376428
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Commodity Price Index (Australia) was reported at 117.38 (index) in September 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 111.15 (index), ranging from 102.62 (index) to 117.38 (index) across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 115.35 (index), up from the prior three at 113.45 (index). Volatility over the past year (σ 4.76 (index)) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.19 (index)). In September readings over the past 3 years, RBA Commodity Price Index has averaged 105.63 (index).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 16) and S&P Global Services PMI (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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RBA Commodity Price Index - AU
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About RBA Commodity Price Index — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia's RBA Commodity Price Index rose to 117.376428 in September, up from August's 115.802403, marking a continued upward trend. The increase from August to September reflects strengthening commodity prices after a steady rise since June. Market participants will watch for further data to gauge the impact on inflation and monetary policy. Updated 10/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 117.4 Index. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 115.8 Index. Before that (Jul 2026): 112.9 Index.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Employment Change | -39.3 | 29.3 | 20 | -9.65 | High |
| 00:30 | AU | Participation Rate | 66.8 | 67 | 67 | 66.90 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Unemployment Rate | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.65 | High |