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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia NAB Business Survey held to -1 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia NAB Business Survey held to -1 in September 2026, released October 2026.
Latest Release
-1.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
-1.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAB Business Survey (Australia) was reported at -1.00 in October 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.00, ranging from -1.00 to 9.00 across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.67, down from the prior three at 3.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.31) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.63).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/ASX 200, positively correlated (Bullish S&P).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Oct 15) and Unemployment Rate (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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NAB Business Survey - AU
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About NAB Business Survey — Australia
DEFINITION
The NAB Business Survey is a widely recognized financial indicator that provides valuable insights into the current state and future outlook of the business sector in Australia. It is based on a comprehensive survey of businesses across various industries, providing key data on business conditions, confidence levels, and investment intentions. This indicator is highly regarded by economists, policymakers, and investors as a reliable source of information for assessing the overall health of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -1. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.72) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | NAB Business Confidence | -13 | -9 | -9 | -11.00 | High |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.4 | -0.40 | Low | |
| 00:30 | AU | Employment Change | 39.5 | 20 | 20.00 | High | |
| 00:30 | AU | Participation Rate | 67.1 | 67 | 67.00 | Low | |
| 00:30 | AU | Unemployment Rate | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.60 | High | |