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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q1 2021
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased April 2021
Australia RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q1 2021, released April 2021, down 0.1% from December's 0.5% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.5% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.34%.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Apr 2021
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ (Australia) was reported at 0.4% in April 2021. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, up from the prior three at 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2021.
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RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ - AU
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About RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the quarterly change in the weighted average of consumer prices in Australia. It is used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to monitor inflation and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall price movements in the economy and is closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2021): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2020): 0.5 %. Before that (Oct 2020): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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