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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 Points in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.5 Points from August's 46.3 Points reading. The reading matched the 46.5 Points consensus.
Latest Release
44.800000
Actual
46.500000
Consensus
46.300000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 45.73
Actual: 44.8
Error: +0.93
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Brazil) was reported at 44.80 Points in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 46.50 Points by 1.70 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 46.30 Points. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.56 Points, ranging from 44.80 Points to 49.10 Points across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.20 Points, down from the prior three at 48.47 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.26 Points) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.17 Points). In October readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has averaged 48.17 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 9) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - BR
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Brazil
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 44.8 Points, consensus 46.5 Points. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 46.3 Points. Before that (Jul 2026): 47.5 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.59) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | New Car Sales MoM | 2.3 | -1.6 | -2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 13:00 | BR | Auto Production MoM | -1.1 | 6.8 | -3 | -2.05 | Low |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.32 | 0.73 | 0.68 | Medium |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.47 | 4.22 | 4.5 | 4.45 | Medium |