Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Auto Production MoM fell to -1.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Auto Production MoM fell to -1.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 7.9% from August's 6.8% reading. The print exceeded the -3.0% consensus by 1.9%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 9.22%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Production MoM averaged 2.9%, vs -2.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.1
Actual
-3
Consensus
6.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.5 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.33
Actual: -1.1
Error: +0.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Auto Production MoM (Brazil) was reported at -1.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3% by 1.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.29%, ranging from -15.8% to 24.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.53%, down from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.85%) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.62%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Auto Production MoM has averaged -1.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 9) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Auto Production MoM - BR
Loading chart data...
About Auto Production MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Auto Production MoM declined by -1.1% in October, beating the -3.0% estimate and down from September's 6.8%. The contraction follows a strong rebound in September after August's 3.1% gain, signaling a slight pullback in output. Market focus remains on upcoming industrial data and central bank policy amid mixed manufacturing signals. Updated 10/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -1.1 %, consensus -3 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -1.1 %. Before that (Sep 2026): -1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | New Car Sales MoM | 2.3 | -1.6 | -2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 13:00 | BR | Auto Production MoM | -1.1 | 6.8 | -3 | -2.05 | Low |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.32 | 0.73 | 0.68 | Medium |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.47 | 4.22 | 4.5 | 4.45 | Medium |