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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Median CPI YoY fell to 1.9% in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Median CPI YoY fell to 1.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 2.0% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
1.9
Actual
1.9
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.92
Actual: 1.9
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Median CPI YoY (Canada) was reported at 1.9% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.9% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Median CPI YoY - CA
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About Median CPI YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Median CPI YoY for September came in at 1.900000%, matching estimates and down from August's 2.000000%. This decline signals a slight easing in inflationary pressures compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation of this trend amid steady central bank policy. Updated 10/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.9 %, consensus 1.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |