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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Common CPI YoY fell to 2.4% in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Common CPI YoY fell to 2.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from August's 2.6% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.6% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Common CPI YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.63
Actual: 2.4
Error: +0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Common CPI YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Common CPI YoY - CA
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About Common CPI YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Common CPI YoY for October came in at 2.400000%, missing the 2.600000% estimate and down from September's 2.600000%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation compared to the previous two months, signaling easing price pressures. Market participants will watch for further central bank guidance amid this downward trend. Updated 10/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |