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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Primary Budget Balance climbed to 29.7B in December 2013
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2013
Brazil Primary Budget Balance climbed to 29.7B in December 2013, up 23.5B from November's 6.2B reading.
Latest Release
29.700000
Actual
—
Consensus
6.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Primary Budget Balance (Brazil) was reported at 29.70 billion in December 2013. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.20 billion.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (May 28) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (May 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2013.
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Primary Budget Balance - BR
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About Primary Budget Balance — Brazil
DEFINITION
The primary budget balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its non-interest spending. It excludes interest payments on debt, providing a more accurate picture of a government's fiscal health. A positive primary budget balance indicates that a government is generating enough revenue to cover its non-interest expenses, while a negative balance suggests that it is relying on borrowing to fund its operations. This indicator is used by policymakers and investors to assess a government's ability to manage its finances and make informed decisions about budgetary policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2013): actual 29.7 B. Prior reading (Nov 2013): 6.18 B. Before that (Oct 2013): -9.048 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.