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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Industrial Orders YoY fell to -1.8% in January 2020
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2020
Italy Industrial Orders YoY fell to -1.8% in January 2020, released March 2020, down 7.5% from December's 5.7% reading. The reading missed the 0.7% consensus by 2.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2.33%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Orders YoY averaged 0.85%, vs -3.18% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 37th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.8
Actual
0.7
Consensus
5.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.02 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Mar 2020
Predicted: 2.22
Actual: -1.8
Error: +4.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Orders YoY (Italy) was reported at 7% in February 2021. The reading rose from the previous value of 5%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.5%, up from the prior three at 0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2021.
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Industrial Orders YoY - IT
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About Industrial Orders YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Industrial Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders received by industrial companies compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as well as potential future trends in production and sales. It is widely used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess the health of the industrial sector and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2020): actual 7 %. Prior reading (Nov 2020): 5.3 %. Before that (Nov 2020): 5.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.