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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 4.0% in August 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 4.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.5% from July's 3.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.67%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.7%, vs 4.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4
Actual
4.1
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.15
Actual: 3.5
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Australia) was reported at 4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.1% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.73%, ranging from 3.2% to 4.2% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.8%, down from the prior three at 3.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 1) and RBA Financial Stability Review (Oct 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - AU
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.77) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | Household Spending YoY | 6.8 | 7 | 6.4 | 6.60 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Household Spending MoM | 0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.15 | Low |
| 04:30 | AU | Interest Rate Decision | 4.6 | 4.35 | 4.6 | 4.60 | High |
| Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Private House Approvals MoM | 3.7 | -1.9 | -0.7 | 1.50 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM | -6.1 | -1.9 | -2 | -4.05 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits YoY | 10.3 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 11.40 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Median CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.65 | High |
| 01:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.35 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | High |
| 01:30 | AU | Median CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.35 | High |
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate | 103.5 | 103.07 | 103.5 | 103.50 | High |
| 01:30 | AU | CPI YoY | 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.05 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate YoY | 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.05 | Medium |