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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Ivey PMI climbed to 64.3 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada Ivey PMI climbed to 64.3 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 9.2 from July's 55.1 reading. The print exceeded the 56.2 consensus by 8.1. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 55.38. Over the past 3 months, Ivey PMI averaged 55.65, vs 55.2 in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
64.3
Actual
56.2
Consensus
55.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.85
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 55.38
Actual: 64.3
Error: -8.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ivey PMI (Canada) was reported at 64.30 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 56.20 by 8.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 55.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Ivey PMI - CA
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About Ivey PMI — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Ivey PMI for September surged to 64.300000, beating the estimate of 56.200000 and rising sharply from August's 55.100000. This marks a strong expansion in business activity compared to the prior month. Market participants will watch for potential impacts on Bank of Canada policy amid this robust growth. Updated 9/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 64.3, consensus 56.2. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 55.1. Before that (Jun 2026): 56.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.86) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |