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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Ivey PMI fell to 58.2 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Ivey PMI fell to 58.2 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 6.1 from August's 64.3 reading. The reading missed the 65.2 consensus by 7. Over the past 3 months, Ivey PMI averaged 59.7, vs 57.37 in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
58.2
Actual
65.2
Consensus
64.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.5
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 67.13
Actual: 58.2
Error: +8.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ivey PMI (Canada) was reported at 58.20 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 65.20 by 7.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 64.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Ivey PMI - CA
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About Ivey PMI — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Ivey PMI for September came in at 58.200000, missing the estimate of 65.200000 and down from August's 64.300000. The index remains in expansion territory but shows a notable slowdown from the prior month. Market focus will shift to upcoming economic data for further clarity on growth momentum. Updated 10/6/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 58.2, consensus 65.2. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 64.3. Before that (Jul 2026): 55.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |