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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Weekly Earnings YoY fell to 5.0% in November 2024
FMPWeeklyReleased January 2025
Canada Average Weekly Earnings YoY fell to 5.0% in November 2024, released January 2025, down 0.3% from October's 5.3% reading. The reading matched the 5.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.33%. Over the past 3 months, Average Weekly Earnings YoY averaged 5.25%, vs 4.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
5
Consensus
5.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 5.35
Actual: 5
Error: +0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Canada) was reported at 5% in January 2025. This matched the market consensus of 5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.3%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.17%, up from the prior three at 4.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.41%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Average Weekly Earnings YoY - CA
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About Average Weekly Earnings YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in average weekly earnings of employees over a 12-month period. This indicator provides insight into the overall trend of wage growth and can be used to assess the health of the labor market and the purchasing power of consumers. It is a key metric for businesses and policymakers to monitor in order to make informed decisions about wages, inflation, and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2024): actual 5 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2024): 5.3 %. Before that (Sep 2024): 5.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.