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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Hourly Wages YoY climbed to 2.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Average Hourly Wages YoY climbed to 2.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's 2.0% reading. The reading missed the 3.0% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.66%. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Wages YoY averaged 2.5%, vs 3.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
3
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.63
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.27%, ranging from 2% to 4.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.43%, down from the prior three at 3.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.42%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Wages YoY has averaged 3.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/TSX Composite, positively correlated (Bullish S&P). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Monetary Policy Report (Oct 28) and BoC Interest Rate Decision (Oct 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Average Hourly Wages YoY - CA
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About Average Hourly Wages YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in average hourly wages for workers over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall health of the labor market and can be used to assess the impact of wage growth on consumer spending and inflation. It is a key metric for economists, policymakers, and investors in understanding the current state and future trends of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.8 | 1 | 1.10 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Retail Sales YoY | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.15 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Retail Sales MoM | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -0.20 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -1.6 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | CA | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High | |