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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.4 in February 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2025
Australia Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.4 in February 2025, released March 2025, up 0.2 from January's 50.2 reading. The reading matched the 50.6 consensus.
Latest Release
50.4
Actual
50.6
Consensus
50.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.48
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Mar 2025
Predicted: 50.88
Actual: 50.4
Error: +0.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing PMI (Australia) was reported at 50.40 in March 2025. This missed the market consensus of 50.60 by 0.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.20. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM (Jul 29) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2025.
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Manufacturing PMI - AU
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About Manufacturing PMI — Australia
DEFINITION
Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This widely followed indicator is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to assess the overall economic performance and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2025): actual 50.4, consensus 50.6. Prior reading (Feb 2025): 50.6. Before that (Jan 2025): 50.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary neutral force in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate YoY | 4 | 4 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate QoQ | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.85 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | AU | Median CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Median CPI MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | CPI | 102.09 | 102.3 | 102.17 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM | -1.1 | -0.5 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits YoY | 5.3 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | 0.1 | 0 | 0.35 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Private House Approvals MoM | 2.8 | -1 | -1.00 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 | Low | |