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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash fell to 51.5 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash fell to 51.5 in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.8 from December's 52.3 reading. The reading matched the 52.6 consensus.
Latest Release
51.500000
Actual
52.600000
Consensus
52.300000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.1
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 52.8
Actual: 51.5
Error: +1.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Australia) was reported at 51.50 in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of 52.60 by 1.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.30. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash - AU
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for January registered 51.5, missing the 52.6 consensus and down from December’s 52.3. The index remains above the 50.0 expansion threshold but shows a 0.8-point slowdown, reflecting softer output and new orders alongside rising input costs. Market reaction was muted, with the AUD steady and equities little changed as investors weigh ongoing moderate growth. Updated 2/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 51.5, consensus 52.6. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 52.2. Before that (Nov 2025): 51.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.