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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Average Earnings incl. Bonus fell to 4.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Average Earnings incl. Bonus fell to 4.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from April's 4.4% reading. The reading matched the 4.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.7%. Over the past 3 months, Average Earnings incl. Bonus averaged 4.25%, vs 3.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 29th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
4.5
Consensus
4.4
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Earnings incl. Bonus (United Kingdom) was reported at 4.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.5% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.49%, ranging from 3.9% to 5% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.27%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.32%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.7%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Average Earnings incl. Bonus has averaged 5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Average Earnings incl. Bonus - UK
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About Average Earnings incl. Bonus — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Average Earnings incl. Bonus is a financial indicator that measures the average amount of money earned by employees, including any bonuses or additional compensation. This metric provides insight into the overall income levels of a company's workforce and can be used to assess the financial health and performance of an organization. It is often used by investors, analysts, and businesses to evaluate the profitability and competitiveness of a company. A higher average earnings incl. bonus indicates a stronger financial position and potential for growth, while a lower figure may suggest potential challenges in attracting and retaining top talent.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 1.3 | 29.4 | 18.05 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | -23.3 | -19.8 | -19.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 3 | 20 | 8.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 99 | 85 | 116.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.40 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High |