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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core RPI YoY fell to 2.3% in September 2014
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2014
United Kingdom Core RPI YoY fell to 2.3% in September 2014, released October 2014, down 0.2% from August's 2.5% reading. The reading matched the 2.4% consensus. Core RPI YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2014
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core RPI YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.1% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.67%, ranging from 3% to 4.4% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.03%, down from the prior three at 3.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.54%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.69%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core RPI YoY - UK
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About Core RPI YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Core RPI YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the core Retail Price Index (RPI), which is a measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall trend of inflation, allowing investors and policymakers to make informed decisions about the economy. It is considered a key measure of price stability and is closely monitored by financial experts and analysts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 70.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |