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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core RPI YoY fell to 2.3% in September 2014
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2014
United Kingdom Core RPI YoY fell to 2.3% in September 2014, released October 2014, down 0.2% from August's 2.5% reading. The reading matched the 2.4% consensus. Core RPI YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2014
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core RPI YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4%, ranging from 3% to 4.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.4%, down from the prior three at 4.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core RPI YoY - UK
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About Core RPI YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Core RPI YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the core Retail Price Index (RPI), which is a measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall trend of inflation, allowing investors and policymakers to make informed decisions about the economy. It is considered a key measure of price stability and is closely monitored by financial experts and analysts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.