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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core RPI YoY fell to 2.3% in September 2014
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2014
United Kingdom Core RPI YoY fell to 2.3% in September 2014, released October 2014, down 0.2% from August's 2.5% reading. The reading matched the 2.4% consensus. Core RPI YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2014
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core RPI YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3% in June 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.84%, ranging from 3% to 4.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.17%, down from the prior three at 3.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.61%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core RPI YoY - UK
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About Core RPI YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Core RPI YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the core Retail Price Index (RPI), which is a measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall trend of inflation, allowing investors and policymakers to make informed decisions about the economy. It is considered a key measure of price stability and is closely monitored by financial experts and analysts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.64) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |