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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CPI MoM held to 0.7% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom CPI MoM held to 0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026. The print came in cooler than the 0.9% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.4%.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.9
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI MoM - UK
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About CPI MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK’s May CPI MoM rose 0.700000%, missing the 0.800000% estimate but accelerating from April’s 0.400000%. This increase signals a faster inflation pace compared to the previous month, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Market focus will remain on upcoming Bank of England decisions amid persistent inflationary trends. Updated 5/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.