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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.38% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.38% in September 2026, up 0.23% from August's 5.16% reading.
Latest Release
5.383000
Actual
—
Consensus
5.155000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction (United Kingdom) was reported at 5.38% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.16%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.86%, ranging from 4.46% to 5.38% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.19%, up from the prior three at 4.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.14%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 16) and BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction - UK
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About 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest rates for 10-year government bonds issued by the United Kingdom. This auction is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it reflects the current sentiment and confidence in the UK economy, as well as the government's ability to borrow money at a competitive rate. The results of the auction can impact the overall bond market and provide insights into the future direction of interest rates.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5.383 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5.155 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.04 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.35 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.90 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -5.29 | -8.19 | -9.9 | -7.60 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -0.92 | -2.322 | -3.6 | -2.26 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 1.2 | 1 | -0.1 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -18.01 | -19.3 | -21.8 | -19.91 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0 | -0.10 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.63 | Medium |
| 11:30 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.53 | Low |
| 12:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.53 | Low |