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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.42% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.42% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.04% from August's 5.38% reading.
Latest Release
5.418000
Actual
—
Consensus
5.383000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction (United Kingdom) was reported at 5.42% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.38%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.91%, ranging from 4.46% to 5.42% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.32%, up from the prior three at 4.98%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction has averaged 4.79%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction - UK
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About 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest rates for 10-year government bonds issued by the United Kingdom. This auction is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it reflects the current sentiment and confidence in the UK economy, as well as the government's ability to borrow money at a competitive rate. The results of the auction can impact the overall bond market and provide insights into the future direction of interest rates.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 5.418 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 5.383 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 5.155 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |